"Pro tanto quid retribuamus" … "What shall we give back in return for so much?"

We will survive climate disruption — but the loss of nature, and ocean acidification is a different proposition.

Plankton are the planet’s life-support system, and pollution may be harming them. The GOES Foundation gathers the citizen-science evidence and delivers open-source solutions to eliminate pollution and regenerate the oceans.

56%
fall in monitored marine wildlife populations, 1970 to 2020
½
of the zooplankton pool lost since 1850
3bn
people who depend on the ocean for food
1,466
microscope photographs from 13 yachts
Why we act

Climate change is very complex and confusing to understand, even for the experts and the most powerful computer models.

We continue to catalogue the loss of nature and do nothing to stop it happening. The WWF Living Planet Report 2024 shows that monitored wildlife populations fell by an average of 73% between 1970 and 2020. Our index shows that marine animal life has fallen by up to 65% since 1850, and the figure compares this loss with the great extinctions of the past.

We can learn to live with climate change, but our future depends on restoring marine life and nature on land.

About 44% of the mapped ocean surface is already below its winter threshold for shell-building animals. It is too late simply to do no harm, and cutting carbon dioxide, although essential, will not be enough on its own. Without active intervention, our scenario shows marine animal life falling to about 22% of its 1850 level by 2035, a loss of about 80%, beyond which recovery is very unlikely. That would leave far fewer whales, seals, seabirds and fish, and it would threaten the food of over 3 billion people and the incomes of around 600 million.

Nature and the climate are going to reset, and unless we act now, our way of life will bear no resemblance to the present.

Practical solutions are already on the table, and they need to start now. We propose biomimicry that copies the ocean’s natural vortex, releasing seawater aerosol modified with sulphate, ferric iron, oil and silica particles, which act as nuclei for water vapour to condense and form clouds, and restore the ocean’s surface skin, the surface microlayer (SML). For human-made carbon dioxide, we propose spreading 10 billion tonnes of olivine a year, together with crushed limestone on farmland, to help draw carbon dioxide out of the air. Both actions must be carried out alongside an end to the toxic sterilisation of the planet, followed by ecosystem restoration and the elimination of all forms of pollution.

Citizen-science survey

The Atlantic sampling map

Thirteen sailing vessels contributed 1,466 microscope photographs, which together hold 18,142 sized particles. The map shows the sampling tracks across the Atlantic, alongside the overturning circulation and the 20°W meridional transects.

Atlantic survey — sampling tracks Open full results page →
Map of the North and Equatorial Atlantic showing GOES sampling stations from thirteen vessels, major surface and deep currents of the overturning circulation, Tara Pacific 2016 surface stations and the 20°W meridional transects

New: GOES now has a shorebase in Bocas del Toro, Panama — seahorsepoint.org. Subscribe to our newsletter →

The problem

The oceans are the planet’s lungs — and they are suffocating

Since the chemical revolution of the 1950s, a cocktail of toxic “forever chemicals”, microplastics and partially combusted carbon has been poisoning the sea. These particles carry toxic chemicals, and we are testing whether they harm the plankton that eat them.

With no plankton there are no whales, seals, birds or fish. The surface microlayer controls gas exchange and sea-spray aerosol, and it may also affect evaporation.

Large areas of the ocean, including most of the Southern Ocean, are high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll waters where iron limits plant growth.

Read our vision
44%
of the mapped winter ocean surface below its aragonite threshold, 2022 to 2024
57%
of that surface may be below its threshold by 2045 on present trends
30M t
Sargassum in the Atlantic in 2025 (1 to 2M t before 2011)
8.04
Ocean surface pH in 2024 (about 8.2 before industrialisation)
World map of winter aragonite saturation against zonal ecological reference thresholds — about 44% of the mapped winter ocean surface, between 37 and 52% under all schemes, is below its zonal threshold. Polar and subpolar waters (threshold Ω 1.6), temperate waters (Ω 2.4) and tropical reef waters (Ω 3.3) are shaded by when each crosses its threshold, from below threshold now (2022–24) through 2055. Data: OceanSODA-ETHZ v2025, 1982–2024.
Ocean acidification in context: temperature, CO2, aragonite saturation and extinctions from the Great Dying to 2025, with trends to 2040. Panel A spans 265 million years at geological stage resolution, showing global temperature, atmospheric CO2, modelled aragonite saturation, and extinction bars for eleven events from the Capitanian and Great Dying to the present, marking which were measured or proposed acidification events. Panel B spans 1850 to 2025 at annual resolution with trend projection to 2040: the biocurve of marine animal life falls to 35% of its 1850 level in 2023 with a conditional decline scenario reaching 13% by 2040; CO2 rises to 425.6 ppm in 2025 and 465 ppm by 2040; temperature anomaly reaches +1.55 °C in 2025 and +1.7 °C by 2040; measured aragonite saturation falls to 2.89 in 2022, and the trend reaches 2.79 by 2040.
Ocean acidification in context: temperature, CO₂, aragonite saturation and extinctions — from the Great Dying (252 Ma) to 2025, with trends to 2040.
Carbonate margin against loss of life: what the ocean had, what it lost, and how many genera died. Arrows run from the aragonite saturation before each extinction event to the level implied by the measured pH drop, plotted against the share of marine life lost: End-Cretaceous (39% of genera), End-Triassic (46%), PETM, End-Permian (62%, Ω 6.2 to 1.6), and today, 1750 to 2022, placed at 65% of animal abundance lost. In today’s cold productive waters, winter Ω has fallen from about 2.0 to between 1.3 and 1.6, and the measured Iceland Sea rate of 27% per century is more than thirty times the end-Permian rate, with a dashed line to 1.24 to 1.52 by 2040. Shaded bands mark Ω below 1.6, the winter threshold for sensitive calcifiers, and below 1.0, where aragonite dissolves.
Carbonate margin against loss of life: today’s ocean entered the industrial era with the smallest carbonate margin in 265 million years — and Ω is falling ~30× faster than in the end-Permian.
Citizen-science results

What the Atlantic samples revealed

Thirteen yachts sampled the surface ocean every 12 hours between the Canary Islands, Cape Verde and the Caribbean. Filtered to a nominal 20 microns, these samples give the first baseline for particles and plankton in this ocean region.

5
Very few animals. The samples held five animals in 146.6 litres, about 34 per cubic metre, and no small zooplankton were confirmed.
64
Dark particles. Dark, combustion-like particles averaged about 64 per litre and appeared in 70% of the photographs.
5
Plastic fibres. Plastic fibres averaged about 5 per litre, and fibres outnumbered plastic fragments in every part of the crossing.
Evidence in the water

What the samples show

Microscope images from the Atlantic crossing — carbon particles, microfibres, and near-empty water.

Three filter fields from the Atlantic crossing under the microscope: (a) a single blue copepod on an otherwise near-empty filter, (b) a long blue plastic fibre, (c) mineral grains with dark, combustion-like particles.
(a) A lone copepod · (b) a long blue plastic fibre · (c) mineral grains with dark, combustion-like particles
The biocurve: an index of documented marine animal groups stands at 35% of its 1850 baseline on importance weights and 54% on production weights as cold-water aragonite crosses its threshold. The green biocurve declines from 1950 to 2023 with an uncertainty band; the orange line shows measured aragonite saturation in the subpolar North Atlantic sitting below the 1.6 impact threshold since the mid-1980s; a red conditional decline scenario steepens through a 2035–2045 vulnerability window; a purple band marks the illustrative critical-density regime below which recovery becomes very unlikely.
The biocurve: documented marine animal groups stand at 35–54% of their 1850 baseline as cold-water aragonite crosses its ecological threshold.
The good news

The ocean can recover — fast

Most marine life is under 1 mm, and marine algae can replace their whole stock in about one day. Remove the toxic brakes and the oceanic ecosystem can bounce back quickly — exactly as biodiversity rebounded during the COVID pause.

We may never cut carbon dioxide fast enough — but we can eliminate pollution, restore ocean pH, and regenerate ecosystems on land and at sea. That is the fight worth winning.

A starfish story

“There are too many starfish to make a difference,” the old man said. The child threw one back into the sea and replied: “It made a difference to that one.”

If we all do something — drop oxybenzone, cut plastic, go non-toxic — it adds up.

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